Managing a Player Props Portfolio

## The Unique Challenges of Props A player props portfolio differs from a match winner or handicap portfolio in several important ways that affect risk management: 1. **Higher margin:** Props carry 15–25% vs 2–5% for core markets. Each bet must overcome a higher hurdle. 2. **Less exchange liquidity:** Most player props are not available on exchanges. You are limited to bookmakers who will restrict winning prop accounts. 3. **Individual player variance:** A single injury or substitution can invalidate an entire night's prop positions. 4. **Account health:** Prop bettors who win consistently are restricted very quickly by soft books. ## Portfolio Construction for Props - **Cap per player:** Maximum 3% of props portfolio on any single player per match day. Player-specific variance is too high for concentration. - **Sport diversification:** Football, basketball, and NFL props have uncorrelated event schedules. A bad football prop night does not affect basketball prop outcomes. - **Market diversification within props:** Anytime scorer, assists, cards, total shots — each has different variance profiles and different market efficiency characteristics. ## Account Health in Prop Markets Prop bettors are among the fastest to be restricted at soft books. To extend account lifespan: - Mix some recreational bets (accumulators, entertainment specials) with sharp prop plays - Limit prop betting frequency to 3–4 bets per account per week - Withdraw infrequently ## The CLV Benchmark for Props At Pinnacle (the sharpest prop market available), compare every prop bet. If the soft book prop price is consistently better than Pinnacle by 3%+, you are extracting genuine value. If not — if Pinnacle regularly beats your soft book prop prices — reassess your market selection.