Introduction to Player Prop Markets

## What Are Player Props? Player proposition (prop) bets are wagers on specific individual player performance outcomes within an event. Examples: - **Football:** Anytime goalscorer, first goalscorer, player to receive a card, player assists - **Basketball:** Points, rebounds, assists over/under for a specific player - **American Football:** Passing yards, rushing yards, touchdowns for specific players - **Tennis:** Aces, double faults, total games won by a specific player Props shift focus from team-level outcomes to individual performance — a distinct analytical challenge. ## Why Props Markets Are Often Inefficient - **Lower priority:** Bookmakers invest less modelling resource in props than in match winner markets - **Data scarcity:** Player-level historical performance data is harder to source and clean than match-level data - **Public sentiment bias:** Popular players (star strikers, celebrity athletes) are over-bet regardless of true probability — creating consistent value on their opponents or on lesser-known performers ## The Data Requirement Profitable player prop betting requires player-level statistics: - Goals, assists, shots on target, key passes (football) - Points, rebounds, assists averages plus opponent defensive rating (basketball) - Serve percentage, aces per set, break points converted (tennis) Sources: FBref, Understat, Basketball-Reference, Tennis Abstract — all free with significant depth. ## The Edge Assessment For each player prop market, your analytical question is: does the bookmaker's implied probability (1/offered price) accurately reflect this player's probability of achieving this outcome in this specific game context? Player props are won in the research — not in the bet.