Tracking EV on Every Bet

## Why EV Tracking Is Not Optional Most bettors track profit and loss. Fewer track expected value. But profit/loss at small samples is dominated by variance; EV tracking gives you a faster and more reliable signal of whether your process is working. ## What to Record For every bet, record: - Selection and market - Your estimated probability (formed before seeing the price) - The offered price (decimal) - Implied probability (1/price) - EV% = (Your P × (price-1)) - (1-Your P) — expressed as % of stake - Stake - Outcome (win/loss) - Actual P&L ## The EV Ledger Maintain a cumulative EV ledger: the sum of all individual EV amounts across every bet. This represents what you should have earned based on your probability estimates, irrespective of actual results. Compare cumulative EV to actual P&L over time. They should converge as sample size grows. If P&L consistently underperforms cumulative EV, your probability estimates may be systematically optimistic. ## Monthly EV Review At the end of each month: - Total expected profit (sum of EV amounts) - Actual profit/loss - Difference (variance impact this month) - Rolling 6-month cumulative EV vs actual The variance impact should average toward zero over time. If your EV is consistently positive but actual P&L is consistently negative over 12 months, investigate: your probability estimates may be miscalibrated.