## Your Bets Are a Portfolio
Professional investors do not evaluate each stock trade in isolation — they evaluate the portfolio. The same approach applies to betting.
## The Season-Level EV Budget
Set a season-level EV target:
- Number of bets planned: 400
- Average stake: £75
- Average EV%: 3%
- Expected annual profit: 400 × £75 × 0.03 = £900
This is your operating budget. Variance will mean actual results deviate — but the EV budget tells you what to expect if your process is correct.
## Portfolio Diversification Benefits
Diversifying across markets, sports, and odds ranges reduces the correlation between individual bet outcomes. Uncorrelated bets smooth the variance of the overall portfolio.
Mathematically: if you make n independent bets of equal EV and size, variance scales as 1/√n relative to stake. Doubling the number of uncorrelated bets reduces standard deviation of results by ~30%.
## Identifying Portfolio Drag
Some market types in your portfolio will have lower actual CLV than others. Quarterly analysis might reveal:
- Football 1X2: +3.5% CLV
- Tennis main markets: +2.1% CLV
- Football goalscorer: −0.5% CLV
Goalscorer markets are dragging the portfolio. Eliminating them improves overall portfolio EV without changing any other behaviour.
## The Compound Growth Simulation
Run a Monte Carlo simulation of your expected portfolio:
- Input: number of bets, average EV%, average odds
- Output: distribution of possible outcomes after n bets
This shows you the realistic range of outcomes — not just the expected value. If the 10th percentile outcome over your season is still above your starting bankroll, your operation is conservatively sized. If the 10th percentile is ruin, you are overbetting.
Create a free account to track your progress and save bookmarks.
