## Multi-Runner Markets: A Different EV Environment
In a two-outcome market (tennis, basketball), if one outcome is underpriced, the other is overpriced — you need only identify which side has the edge.
In a multi-runner market (horse racing with 12 runners, football outright with 20 teams), the situation is more complex: the market's probability mass must be distributed across many outcomes, and mispricing can exist in multiple places simultaneously.
## Finding EV in Horse Racing
Your job: for each runner, estimate the true win probability and compare to the implied probability from the market.
**Step 1:** Build a speed rating for each runner based on best recent time, adjusted for distance and going conditions.
**Step 2:** Convert relative ratings into win probabilities (market share model or Elo-style conversion).
**Step 3:** De-vig the SP or opening market.
**Step 4:** Compare — any runner where your probability significantly exceeds implied probability is a potential value bet.
## The "Racing Form" EV Trap
Conventional racing form analysis identifies horses that look like good bets based on form. EV analysis identifies horses that are underpriced relative to their true ability. The two often diverge: the obvious form horse is already priced in; the underpriced horse often looks less impressive on paper.
## Portfolio EV in Multi-Runner Markets
It is possible to have value on multiple runners in the same race — your total implied stake probability may be below 100%. This is a positive dutching opportunity: backing multiple runners at stakes sized for equal profit creates a guaranteed profit if any of your value selections wins.
## Expected Value vs Expected Price Movement
In horse racing, early bettors sometimes extract value simply by betting before the market corrects — an opening price of 8.00 that closes at 5.00 represented genuine value at 8.00, regardless of whether the horse won.
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