Pre-Mortem Analysis for Betting Decisions

## What Is a Pre-Mortem? The pre-mortem is a decision analysis technique developed by psychologist Gary Klein. Before committing to a decision, you imagine it is 6 months in the future and the decision has failed catastrophically. Then you ask: "What went wrong?" This prospective hindsight — imagining the failure before it happens — generates a richer list of potential failure modes than standard risk assessment. ## Pre-Mortem Applied to Betting **Standard analysis approach:** "Team A should win because they have the superior xG, the home advantage, and the better recent record." **Pre-mortem addition:** "It is 5 minutes after full time. Team A has lost 1-0. Why did I get this wrong?" Possible answers generated by the pre-mortem: - "Team A's defensive xGA was inflated by weak opponents recently" - "The referee historically favours defensive, counter-attacking play" - "Team B's new striker is not in my model yet — he joined midweek" - "Team A has 3 key players who played 90+ minutes on Tuesday" ## Using the Pre-Mortem Output Each pre-mortem response is a check: - Is this failure mode accounted for in my analysis? (If yes: confidence maintained) - Is this failure mode NOT accounted for? (Reduce confidence, or add to the analysis) - Is this failure mode impossible to assess? (Acknowledge irreducible uncertainty, reduce stake) ## When to Use Pre-Mortems Use the pre-mortem on: - Any bet above your standard unit (higher-stake bets warrant more rigorous analysis) - Selections in unfamiliar leagues or match contexts - Selections with strong narrative support (the "obvious" bet that everyone likes) The obvious bet that survives a rigorous pre-mortem is a better bet than the obvious bet accepted uncritically.