## Auditing Your Decisions, Not Just Your Results
A results audit tells you how much you won or lost. A decision audit tells you whether your decisions were correct — regardless of outcomes.
Every significant decision — bet placement, stake size, strategy change — can be evaluated on process quality independent of result. A well-reasoned decision that loses is better than a poorly-reasoned decision that wins.
## The Quarterly Decision Audit Process
**Step 1:** Review the last quarter's bet log. Identify 10–15 significant decisions (largest bets, bets outside normal scope, strategy changes).
**Step 2:** For each decision: reconstruct the reasoning from your notes. What did you know? What did you decide? Why?
**Step 3:** Evaluate the reasoning quality independently of outcome:
- Was the analysis based on a model and data, or intuition?
- Were biases potentially active? (Describe the bias if yes)
- Was the stake within Kelly guidelines?
- Was the selection within your validated market scope?
**Step 4:** Assign a decision quality score (1–5) for each reviewed decision.
**Step 5:** Identify the most common decision quality failures. These are the process improvements for next quarter.
## The Decision Quality vs Outcome Matrix
| | Good Decision | Bad Decision |
|---|---|---|
| **Win** | Deserved win | Lucky win |
| **Lose** | Unlucky loss | Deserved loss |
Profitable bettors optimise for the top-left (deserved wins) and minimise the bottom-right (deserved losses). The top-right (lucky wins) and bottom-left (unlucky losses) are temporary — they revert to the mean. Only decision quality is sustainable.
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