Real-Time Model Updates: Match-Day Pipeline

## The Match-Day Information Flow A prediction model is most accurate when it incorporates the most recent available information. On match days, significant new information becomes available in a defined sequence: **T-24 hours:** Manager press conference signals **T-2 hours:** Official lineup release **T-1 hour:** Pre-match warm-up observation **T-0:** Kickoff odds (closing line) Each information release requires a model update. ## The Lineup Update The most significant match-day information update is lineup confirmation. The impact of specific absences on team probability must be pre-calculated: For each of the top 20 players in your target leagues: - Calculate xG impact of their absence (from historical matches played/not played) - Calculate how often they miss matches (injury / suspension / rotation risk) - Pre-calculate the probability adjustment for their confirmed absence When lineups confirm, apply the pre-calculated adjustments automatically. ## The Weather Update For outdoor sports: pull the final weather forecast (2-hour window) at T-1 hour. Apply pre-calculated weather adjustments (wind → reduced goals, rain → reduced goals, extreme cold → reduced goals). ## The Closing Line Comparison At T-0 (kickoff): record Pinnacle's opening and closing prices for every match you have predictions for. The move from opening to closing represents the aggregate sharp money flow. If Pinnacle moves significantly against your prediction direction: investigate what information you may have missed. ## Automation The full match-day pipeline can be automated in Python with: - Scheduled scripts for lineup scraping (FBref, official club Twitter) - Weather API calls - Automated Pinnacle price recording - CLV calculation post-result - Dashboard update with all predictions and outcomes