## Beyond Win Rate
Win rate (percentage of bets won) is the metric most bettors focus on. It is also one of the least informative.
A bettor who bets exclusively at 2.00 odds needs a 50% win rate to break even. A bettor who bets exclusively at 1.50 odds needs 66.7% to break even. Win rate means nothing without the context of average odds.
## The Metrics That Matter
**1. ROI (Return on Investment)**
ROI = Total profit / Total staked × 100
The primary measure of selection profitability. Positive ROI means you are extracting value. The higher the ROI over a larger sample, the more convincing the evidence of genuine edge.
**2. Average CLV**
The predictive indicator. If average CLV is positive: you have edge. If negative: you do not, regardless of ROI.
**3. ROI by Market Type**
Break down ROI by sport, league, and market. An overall 3% ROI may hide a 7% ROI in football AH and −1% ROI in football 1X2. The breakdown reveals where to concentrate and where to stop.
**4. Maximum Drawdown**
The largest peak-to-trough unit loss in your history. Measures the worst run you have experienced. Compare to your simulated expected maximum drawdown to assess whether your risk model was realistic.
**5. Yield per 100 Bets**
Total unit profit / (Total bets / 100). Normalises profitability across different bet frequencies. Comparable across bettors regardless of volume.
## Vanity Metrics to Stop Tracking
- Number of winners (meaningless without odds context)
- Total monetary profit without stake context (meaningless without bankroll size)
- "Hit rate" on high-confidence selections (too small a sample for significance)
## The Dashboard Habit
Build a spreadsheet dashboard that calculates all five key metrics automatically from your bet log. Review it weekly. The numbers tell you what your memory cannot.
Create a free account to track your progress and save bookmarks.
