## The High Cost of Outright Markets
Outright markets have the highest margins of any common betting product. Understanding the true cost is essential before committing capital.
## How Outright Margin Is Calculated
Sum all implied probabilities for every outcome. The total above 100% is the margin.
**20-team league outright (approximate):**
If all teams' implied probabilities sum to 120%: margin = 20%
This is far higher than the 5% margin on a 1X2 match bet. An outright bettor needs 20% edge (not 5%) to break even.
## The Effect of Favourite Concentration
In an outright market with 2–3 clear favourites and 17 rank outsiders:
- The favourites are priced fairly (high liquidity, sharp scrutiny)
- The outsiders carry most of the margin
A small club at 250.00 (implied 0.4%) in reality might have 0.2% true probability — but the 0.2% discrepancy is invisible in a margin of 20%.
## Where True Outright Value Is Hidden
Outright value is most likely in the mid-tier: teams with 5–20% true win probability priced at 3–15% implied. The margin is applied more uniformly here, and these are the teams where individual research creates the most differentiation from the market.
## Exchange Outright Margins
Betfair outright markets have significantly lower margins than bookmakers — often 5–10% instead of 15–20%. With 4.5% commission on net winnings, the exchange outright is typically 2–3× lower cost than a bookmaker outright.
Always compare bookmaker outright prices to exchange equivalents before committing.
## The Benchmark Test
Before placing any outright, calculate: "What probability does my model give this team?" vs "What probability is implied by the best available price?" Only proceed if your estimate exceeds implied probability by enough to overcome the full outright margin.
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