Building a Live Betting Framework

## The Framework Imperative Unstructured live betting — reacting to events as they happen without a defined process — is almost universally losing. The live environment is designed to stimulate emotional responses (urgency, excitement, regret avoidance) that lead to poor decisions. A framework converts the chaotic live environment into a structured decision process. ## The Pre-Match Setup Before the event: 1. Run your pre-game model → record your estimated match probabilities and goals expectation 2. Identify the live market conditions under which you would place a bet (e.g. "If Arsenal drift to 2.60 in-play while leading 1-0 at 60 minutes, that exceeds my model estimate of 2.10 — I will back them") 3. Pre-set your live stake (typically 50% of pre-game stake to reflect higher margin and faster decision-making) 4. Confirm the bookmaker/exchange interface is open and the market is loaded ## During the Event - Observe match conditions: is performance consistent with your pre-game model? - Monitor price vs your pre-game estimate - Place bets ONLY when both conditions are met: (a) price exceeds model by your threshold AND (b) no new information contradicts your model ## Strict Pass Rules Pass on any live bet if: - You did not analyse this match pre-game - A significant unexpected event occurred (injury, red card) that you have not processed - The price has already moved significantly in your favour (you may have missed the opportunity) - You are in the 5 minutes before or after half-time (highest suspension and confusion risk) ## Post-Match Review Log every live bet with: pre-game model probability, live price taken, game state at bet time, outcome, and CLV vs Pinnacle live closing. This data, accumulated over 200+ live bets, reveals whether your live betting is genuinely adding value or consuming edge.