Draw No Bet (DNB) is a betting market that removes the draw as a losing outcome. If the match ends in a draw, your stake is refunded. You only win if your selected team wins, and you only lose if your selected team loses.
Mathematically, Draw No Bet is identical to an Asian Handicap 0.0 (AH 0). Neither team receives a virtual goal advantage, and the draw simply results in a push.
This makes DNB one of the simplest handicap markets to understand because there are only three possible outcomes:
By removing the draw from the settlement process, DNB allows analysts to focus only on the probabilities of winning and losing.
Draw No Bet is often considered when the draw represents a meaningful possibility but an analyst still believes one team is more likely to win than lose.
From a probability perspective, DNB may be appropriate when:
These situations do not automatically create value. The offered odds must still be compared with independently estimated probabilities.
Consider the following example.
Match: Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
Your probability model estimates:
The expected value (EV) formula is:
EV = (Probability of Winning × Net Profit) − (Probability of Losing × Stake)
Because a draw returns the stake, it has no positive or negative effect on the calculation.
Step 1: Calculate the profit if Arsenal win.
Odds = 1.35
Net profit = 1.35 − 1 = 0.35
Step 2: Multiply by the probability of winning.
0.62 × 0.35 = 0.217
Step 3: Calculate the expected loss.
0.14 × 1 = 0.14
Step 4: Subtract the expected loss from the expected profit.
EV = 0.217 − 0.14 = 0.077
This represents an expected value of £0.077 per £1 staked, or approximately 7.7%.
Now compare this with the standard win market.
Step 1: Calculate the net profit.
1.65 − 1 = 0.65
Step 2: Multiply by the probability of winning.
0.62 × 0.65 = 0.403
Step 3: The probability of not winning is the combined probability of a draw or defeat.
0.24 + 0.14 = 0.38
Expected loss:
0.38 × 1 = 0.38
Step 4: Calculate expected value.
EV = 0.403 − 0.38 = 0.023
This produces an expected value of £0.023 per £1 staked, or approximately 2.3%.
In this example, the Draw No Bet market has a higher expected value because the protection against the draw outweighs the reduction in potential profit.
Analysts can also calculate the fair DNB odds using their own probability estimates.
The formula is:
Fair DNB Odds = 1 ÷ (Pwin ÷ (Pwin + Plose))
This formula removes the draw probability and recalculates the odds using only the chances of winning and losing.
Using the previous estimates:
Step 1:
Pwin + Plose = 0.62 + 0.14 = 0.76
Step 2:
0.62 ÷ 0.76 = 0.8158
Step 3:
1 ÷ 0.8158 = 1.23
Your model therefore estimates the fair Draw No Bet price to be approximately 1.23.
If the bookmaker offers odds higher than your calculated fair price, the market may represent positive expected value according to your model. If the offered odds are lower, the market may be less attractive.
Draw No Bet demonstrates how changing market settlement rules affects both risk and reward. Removing the draw reduces potential losses but also lowers the available odds compared with the standard win market. Evaluating whether this trade-off is worthwhile requires accurate probability estimates and careful comparison between fair odds and market prices.
Draw No Bet is mathematically equivalent to an Asian Handicap 0.0 market. A win produces a profit, a loss results in a losing bet, and a draw returns the original stake. By removing draw risk, DNB changes the balance between risk and reward. Its value should always be assessed by comparing your own probability estimates with the market's offered price rather than by considering the odds alone.
