## One Staking System Does Not Fit All Markets
The optimal staking percentage varies by market because variance varies by market. A staking system calibrated for frequent, low-variance bets (tennis match winner) is too aggressive for high-variance bets (accumulator or long-odds outright).
## Variance-Adjusted Staking
The Kelly Criterion naturally adjusts for variance through the b term (net odds). Higher odds = higher variance = lower Kelly fraction for the same edge.
At 5% EV:
- Odds 1.90 (short): Kelly fraction ≈ 12.8% → Half Kelly ≈ 6.4%
- Odds 4.00 (mid-long): Kelly fraction ≈ 4.7% → Half Kelly ≈ 2.4%
- Odds 10.00 (long): Kelly fraction ≈ 2.0% → Half Kelly ≈ 1.0%
The same 5% edge at longer odds warrants a smaller proportional stake because the win/loss distribution is more extreme.
## Market-Specific Stake Caps
Set maximum stake sizes by market category:
- Single-match bets (1X2, AH, O/U): up to 2.5% of bankroll
- Outright bets: up to 1.5% of bankroll (longer time horizon, higher uncertainty)
- Player props: up to 1.0% of bankroll (higher margin, higher individual variance)
- Accumulators (if used): up to 0.5% of bankroll
These caps operate as ceilings — your Kelly calculation may suggest less even before the cap applies.
## The Correlated Bet Problem
When you bet multiple markets in the same event (match winner + over 2.5 goals in the same match), the positions are correlated. Your total exposure to that event should be treated as a single combined position:
Combined Kelly fraction = 1 − P(both lose) × (appropriate single-bet Kelly)
Practically: cap total correlated exposure to any single event at 3% of bankroll regardless of how many markets you bet.
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