Portfolio Performance Attribution

## What Drove This Result? Performance attribution answers: how much of your total return came from selection quality, staking decisions, market access, and pure variance? Without attribution, you cannot systematically improve. ## The Decomposition **Total return = Edge contribution + Staking contribution + Market access contribution + Variance** **Edge contribution:** What would you have earned with flat 1% staking on all bets? This isolates pure selection quality. **Staking contribution:** Difference between actual return and flat-staking return. Positive = your variable staking added value; negative = it subtracted value. **Market access contribution:** What is the improvement in return from line shopping vs using a single bookmaker? Calculate by comparing taken prices to second-best available prices across your records. **Variance:** Difference between all other components and actual return. This is the luck component — cannot be controlled, only understood. ## A Worked Annual Attribution Annual total return: +£1,800 Flat staking return (estimated): +£1,200 Variable staking added: +£300 (your Kelly decisions were directionally correct) Line shopping added: +£200 (always taking the best price) Variance component: +£100 (slightly lucky year) Each component tells you what to focus on: - Flat staking return is the hardest to improve (requires better selections) - Staking and access improvements are operational and more immediately actionable ## The Annual Attribution Review Perform this analysis annually. Track each component over 3–5 years. If staking contribution is consistently negative: simplify to flat staking. If access contribution is consistently below expectations: improve account portfolio and line shopping discipline.